REGIONAL climate change experts will converge in Harare next week to come up with rainfall predictions for the 2024/25 season as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has implored Member States to develop contingency measures to mitigate the impact of disasters.
The Climate Experts Meeting (CEM) represents a platform for capacity building of the experts from the different member states, collaboration, knowledge-sharing and consensus building on the climate systems which affect rainfall patterns in the region.
“The forum enables us to collectively assess climate trends, develop informed projections, and come up with a product which is crucial for planning purposes in various sectors of our economies. It is imperative that we come together as experts so that we review the performance of the past season and come up with a forecast for the coming season as we prepare our countries to plan accordingly,” according to Zimbabwe’s Permanent Secretary for Environment, Climate, and Wildlife, Professor Prosper Matondi.
The impacts of climate variability and change are evident across Southern Africa, affecting ecosystems, livelihoods, and socio-economic stability in most SADC member states which rely on rainfed agriculture.
SADC Executive Secretary, Elias Magosi, told the 44th Ordinary Summit of SADC Heads of State and Government, held in Harare last week, that the 2023/24 rainfall season had been a challenging one with most parts of the region experiencing the negative effects of the El Niño phenomenon, characterised by a late onset of rains, extended mid-season dry spells, and extreme high temperatures.
As a result of the El Niño, an estimated 67.7 million people in the region, representing more than 17% of the regional population, have been negatively affected.
In that regard, SADC, through the then Chairperson, João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, launched the SADC Regional Humanitarian Appeal amounting to at least U$5.5 billion, to support the humanitarian needs and disaster response recovery of the affected population.
The CEM precedes the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF – 29), which will be held 26 to 28 August 2024, in Harare.
“They will analyse data using various models to create a seasonal forecast for 2024-2025, which will be unveiled next week,” said Rebecca Manzou, Director of the Meteorological Services Department (MSD).
The seasonal forecast as an important tool will not only guide national plans for the agricultural season but also for other sectors such as the water management, the health and disaster management, among others.
Further, it will contribute to both regional and global efforts in the humanitarian anticipatory action programming to reduce likely impacts from extreme climate events before they occur.